Trailer manufacturers must embrace automation, AI, and legal immigration to survive and thrive in a shifting global marketplace. The alternative is “chaos”—political, societal, and economic. That’s the essential takeaway from Dr. Don McNeely’s characteristically blunt and wide-ranging assessment of the forces currently reshaping the industrial landscape, as presented at the TTMA convention.
McNeely, president and COO of Chicago Tube and Iron and an adjunct professor at Northwestern University, explained his "Chaos Theory"—the idea that every global event is interconnected. He challenged industry leaders to "skate to where the puck is going to be" by anticipating the unintended consequences of policy, culture, and demographics.
The battle against SOEs
McNeely provided a sophisticated framing for the current tariff environment, arguing that trade policy must be understood through the lens of market structures. While much of the public debate focuses on individual nations, McNeely highlighted the existential threat posed by State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
"Sixty-six percent of the world's steel-making capacity is state-owned," McNeely noted, explaining that these entities have no obligation to earn a profit. This creates a fundamental imbalance where private American companies must compete against subsidized giants.
He categorized current tariffs into three types: punitive (targeting issues like fentanyl flow), reciprocal (leveling the playing field against foreign duties), and motivational (bringing nations to the negotiating table). For McNeely, these measures are necessary to combat "circumvention," where countries like China dump products into the U.S. through intermediaries like Canada.
Productivity gains vs. labor metrics
The narrative of American manufacturing's decline is often misunderstood, according to McNeely. While employment in the sector has dropped from 35% of the workforce in 1950 to just 10% today, much of this is due to staggering productivity gains. In his own career, he has seen steel production move from 12 man-hours per ton to as little as 15 man-minutes in efficient modern mills.
However, this efficiency is being met with an emerging labor crisis. McNeely pointed out a troubling irony: since 1980, the U.S. has lost 7 million manufacturing jobs while adding 7 million government positions.
More concerning is the labor participation rate, with 38% of able-bodied adults choosing not to work. He attributed this to social welfare benefits nearing the market value of unskilled labor and a massive $70 trillion wealth transfer currently passing to younger generations, which he fears is "removing their need to work and their desire to work".
Crisis of culture
As an educator, McNeely expressed deep concern over the "absence of thought" in the next generation of leaders. He argued that modern education focuses on "what to think" rather than "how to think," leading to a workforce that struggles to factor in unexpected consequences.
He cited a disconnect in expectations, where new graduates demand social agendas and remote work while lacking the skills to restructure organizations. "
They are confusing their opinion for intelligence," McNeely warned, noting that 40% of people under 40 in a recent survey found the murder of a high-profile CEO "acceptable"—a chilling indicator of the cultural divide facing today's employers.
A bullish outlook
Despite these societal and political headwinds, McNeely remains optimistic about the American economy. He dismissed the narrative that China will surpass the U.S., noting that the U.S. economy is 55% larger than China’s and six times the size of Germany’s.
“China is not going to pass us by in our lifetime, or your kids’, or your grandkids’, or ever,” he said.
McNeely concluded that the U.S. is essentially on "autopilot" regarding growth, with an 80% probability of the economy staying the course or improving.
He forecasts $2.3 trillion in new economic activity over the next 48 months.
“They can't stop us,” McNeely concluded. “If you look at the appropriations, it's going to disproportionately be an industrial spend—that growth alone represents the fifth largest economy in the world.
“Speaking of some of those societal and political things coming our way: Let's get ahead of them, let's anticipate them. We're going to be fine.”
