Manufacturers' New Orders

ACT Research: Likelihood of HD market recovery in 2021 tempered

Dec. 17, 2019
“Broadly, there are three components to the forecast cuts for 2020 and 2021: Supply, demand and timing,” ACT said.

According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK, expectations for the Class 8 and trailer production volumes have been trimmed for 2020, and expectations of a recovery starting in 2021 have been tempered.

Additionally, ACT says current order softness and excessive inventory building in the medium-duty sector contributed to forecast reductions in the next two years for that segment as well.

The NA CV OUTLOOK report forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next one to five years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as taking a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast.

Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada and Mexico, publicly traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.

“Broadly, there are three components to the forecast cuts for 2020 and 2021: Supply, demand and timing,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Some, like overcapacity, have been on the radar for a long time. Others, like the growing weakness in manufacturing and the broader economy, have come on slowly and inexorably over several months.

“The past six months have been marked by a continued loss of traction in manufacturing. Despite the GM-impacted payroll increase in November, most recent evidence from the sector suggests that recovery is likely to come later, rather than sooner.”

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