Trailer Orders Decline, As Expected

Total trailer and dry van orders released by A.C.T. were down in January, inline with Bear Stearns’ expectations.

Total trailer orders were 23,585, (vs. Bear Stearns’ 22,000-24,000 forecast), down 30% year-over-year (vs. down 23% year-over-year in December). Dry van orders were 13,915 (vs. 13,168 in December), down 37% year-over-year (vs. down 13% year-over-year in December). Flatbed orders were 2,260 (vs. 2,200 in December), down 34% year-over-year (vs. down 30% year-over-year in December).

Dry van build were 10,150 in January, down 11% year-over-year (vs. up 9% year-over-year in December).

Total trailer cancellation rates were 8.1% in January, deteriorating 580bp year-over-year (vs. deterioration of 170bp year-over-year in December). Dry van cancellations were 5.8% in January, deteriorating 460bp year-over-year (vs. deterioration of 130bp year-over-year December). Since May 2005, cancellations remain at historically low-end levels yielding a firm backlog.

Dry van inventories were 8,802 in January (vs. 6,070 in December), up 45% Q/Q (vs. down 26% Q/Q in December). Total trailer backlog-to-build ratios deteriorated 5% year-over-year in January to 6.3x (vs. down 10% year-over-year in December). Dry van backlog-to-build ratios improved 5% year-over-year in January to 6.2x (vs. down 5% year-over-year in December).

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