Mixed Bag Forecast for China’s Truck Market

China’s heavy-duty truck market is forecast to grow less than 1% year-over-year in 2011, with large and medium buses posting a 6.3% annual decline, while the medium-duty segment will remain healthy, growing over 11% year-over-year, according to Frank Maly, director of CV transportation analysis & research at ACT Research.

Performance in the second quarter was mixed. Heavy-duty construction oriented trucks, as well as heavy trucks and tractors, all posted weak results when compared to the previous quarter. However, domestic sales of medium-duty trucks reached all-time record levels, while domestic sales of large and medium buses grew 17.4%. China’s real GDP grew 9.5% year-over-year in the second quarter, a decline of 0.2 points from the previous quarter’s growth and the lowest quarterly growth posted since the second quarter of ’09.

This information is included in the recently released China Commercial Vehicle Outlook. The reportis jointly published quarterly by ACT and SIC, China’s State Information Center. It includes an overview of the China economy and a review and forecast of China’s heavy- and medium-duty truck and bus markets, as well as analysis of OEM market shares within China.

“Inflation remains a problem for China,” Maly said, “even though the economy is expected to grow at a slower pace throughout the second half of the year.”

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