Trailer outlook update: Tariffs shrink margins
The U.S. trailer market has transitioned from cautious optimism to staying afloat as the “modus operandi of wait-and-see continues,” according to the latest issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry trailers report.
ACT earlier this month reported preliminary net trailer orders of 9,000 units in August in a 3% month-over-month increase from July.
“Carrier profits remain weak, freight rate traction is incremental, private fleets are pulling back on asset investments, and Class 8 indicators continue to deteriorate. Within this environment, trailer demand remains subpar,” Jennifer McNealy, ACT director of commercial vehicle market research and publications, said in a news release. “At this point, muted intake continues to be expected until policies and pricing are more transparent and carrier profitability sustainably increases.
“As the industry remains in the weaker months of the annual order cycle, build again outpaced orders in August. Trailer production was about double order placements.”
ACT’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report provides a monthly review of current U.S. trailer market statistics, as well as trailer OEM build plans and market indicators divided by all major trailer types, including backlogs, build, inventory, new orders, cancellations, net orders, and factory shipments. It’s accompanied by a database that gives historical information from 1996 to the present.
“With weak orders, an elevated cancelation rate, and lower build rates, the industry backlog-to-build ratio fell to 3.6 months in August, which doesn’t commit the industry into the beginning of 2026 and is well below the long-term BL/BU average of 5.7 months,” McNealy concluded.
“To say that the environment is challenging at present may be an understatement.”
Tariffs, consolidation
FTR, likewise, reported a slipping market.
U.S. trailer net orders totaled 7,261 units in August, down 4% month-over-month (m/m) but up 3% year-over-year (y/y). Despite the slight annual gain, orders remain well below the 10-year August average of 17,568 as freight weakness, tariff pressures, and pricing uncertainty continue to weigh on demand.
Cancellations eased to 16% of gross orders, down from May’s peak (39%) but still slightly above long-term norms, keeping order activity suppressed.
For the full 2025 order season (September 2024-August 2025), net orders totaled 188,519 units, down 5% y/y. For 2025 to date, however, net orders are up 28% y/y at 110,080 units, averaging just over 13,750 per month. This strength reflects backloaded orders following the November 2024 election, which inflated activity in the first quarter of the year, FTR suggested.
Trailer production decreased slightly in August as builds declined 5% m/m and 6% y/y to 17,134 units. Year-to-date output contracted 22% y/y at 133,851 units, averaging 16,731 per month. Backlogs fell to 81,926 units (-11% m/m; -7% y/y), lowering the backlog/build ratio to 4.8 months – the weakest since June 2020.
“With builds continuing to outpace new orders, OEMs face mounting pressure to balance production against a thinning pipeline. Unless order activity strengthens with the opening of 2026 order boards, the industry may confront additional headwinds heading into next year,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “For trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, tariffs are producing costs, tighter margins, and increased risk of consolidation. Larger, integrated players are more resilient, while smaller firms are vulnerable. Many fleets are delaying replacements, relying more on used trailers and curbing expansion.
“The 2026 order season may start later than September for some OEMs with subdued bookings as policy uncertainty and structurally higher costs weigh on demand.”