Trailer Orders for October Down 35%, As Expected

Industry-wide trailer data released by A.C.T. showed that total trailer orders were 11,455 in October, down 35% year-over-year (vs. down 11% year-over-year in September) -- roughly inline with Bear Stearns’ “low-end expectations.”

Dry van orders were 5,863 in October (vs. 4,931 in September), down 38% year-over-year (vs. down 2% year-over-year in September). Flatbed orders were 1,531 in October (vs. 1,186 in September), down 42% year-over-year (vs. down 25% year-over-year September).

Dry van builds were 9,516, down 38% year-over-year (vs. down 34% year-over-year in September). Total trailer backlog-to-builds ratios deteriorated 1% year-over-year to 4.6x (vs. 1% year-over-year improvement in September). Dry van backlog-to-build ratios deteriorated 3% year-over-year to 3.5x (vs. 1% year-over-year improvement in September).

Dry van inventories were 8,354 in October (vs. 9,282 in September), up 13% year-over-year (vs. up 77% year-over-year in September). Dry van inventories are now roughly 1,000 units lower than they were at the end of 3Q.

Total trailer cancellation rates were 6.3% in October, deteriorating 140bp year-over-year (vs. improvement of 240bp year-over-year in September). Dry van cancellations were 5.8% in October, deteriorating 190bp year-over-year (vs. improvement of 180bp year-over-year in September).

“As best as we can tell, there’s little reason for optimism for trailer demand for the foreseeable future,” Bear Stearns said.

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