Heavy-duty resale prices were down 4.3% month-over-month in November after a 9.4% increase in October, according to Truck Blue Book’s Commercial Truck Monthly Report.
November resale prices were down 6.6% on Class 4-8 trucks between model years 2004 and 2014. This month-over-month decrease percentage was identical to the increase between September and October. This resulted in resale prices very similar to September. The medium duty truck market showed resale prices down 1.6% between October and November following the 7.9% increase between September and October. The past two years have shown resale prices slowing down at the end of the year, so it is expected that October was the last high priced month for 2015.
Resale volume was down significantly in November. The medium and heavy-duty truck markets combined showed a drop of 20.8% month over month.
The auction market also showed price decreases in November, down 13.5% from October. This is much different from the 21% increase in October. Heavy duty trucks alone were down 18% month-over-month, which was the largest drop the second half of 2015 has seen. Medium duty auction prices were actually up 78.4% in November after the 44.4% drop in October. This was more due to the distribution of what particular trucks were sold on the market than identical trucks increasing that much in one month.
Also, the auction market shows a large amount of variability between months. Volume was up for the auction market due to a very slow October.
Given that the end of the year tends to be slower for the commercial truck market, tracking the fourth quarter can be quite important to determine what to expect in December. Comparing October and November resale price averages to Q3 averages, prices were up 1.1%. This was due to a strong October as prices were down during November. December of 2013 showed resale prices increase 0.8% from November and prices were down 0.3% between November and December of 2014.
Heavy-duty resale prices for the start of Q4 were up 3.3% over Q3 averages and medium duty trucks were up even more at 5.8%. This had a large part to do with the resale volume being much lower in the start of Q4 allowing more of the higher priced trucks to influence the market. So far in Q4, auction prices were up 6.3% over Q3 averages due to higher prices in October and being less influenced by the drops seen in November.