November Trailer Orders Exceed Expectations

Total trailer orders released by A.C.T. were 15,633 in November, down 44% year-over-year (vs. down 35% year-over-year in October), but modestly higher than Bear Stearns’ low-end expectations.

“While still down year-over-year, total trailer orders increased 37% sequentially from October into the usual seasonal upturn,” Bear Stearns said.

Dry van orders were 9,947 in November (vs. 5,863 in October), down 45% year-over-year (vs. down 38% year-over-year in October). Flatbed orders were 1,109 in November (vs. 1,532 in October), down 42% year-over-year (vs. down 42% year-over-year October).

Dry van builds were 7,347 in November, down 45% year-over-year (vs. down 38% year-over-year in October). Total trailer backlog-to-builds ratios improved 10% year-over-year to 5.7x (vs. deterioration of 1% year-over-year in October). Dry van backlog-to-build ratios improved 13% year-over-year to 4.8x (vs. deterioration of 3% year-over-year improvement in October).

Dry van inventories were 7,123 in November (vs. 8,310 in October), down 13% year-over-year (vs. up 12% year-over-year in October). Dry van inventories are now roughly 2,200 units lower than they were at the end of 3Q (a modest positive for WNC's 4Q).

Total trailer cancellation rates were 8.0% in November, deteriorating 600bp year-over-year (vs. deterioration of 140bp year-over-year in October). Dry van cancellations were 7.5% in November, deteriorating 680bp year-over-year (vs. deterioration of 190bp year-over-year in October).

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