First Look Into Post-Emissions Truck Demand in the U.K.

Across all OEMs, October registrations for commercial vehicles in the UK weighing over 3.5 tons declined 39% year-over-year (vs. year-over-year growth of 35% in September and 4% year-to-date).

The October data is of particular interest because it represents the first look into post-emissions truck demand in the U.K. (The diesel emissions deadline for larger vehicles was October 1, 2006, in Western Europe, compared to Jan. 1, 2007, in the United States.)

Volvo declined 58% (vs. 112% year-over-year growth in September) and DAF, owned by PCAR, declined 52% year-over-year (vs. 31% year-over-year growth in September). Bear Stearns said that “directionally, these year-over-year declines were more than we were expecting. We estimate that the U.K. represents roughly 28% of DAF's total truck production.”

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, "October was a mixed bag for the UK's new commercial vehicle registrations. The change from Euro 3 to Euro 4 emission standards and the end of the Reduced Pollution Certificate scheme dramatically distorted the heavy truck market. Elsewhere, medium and heavy vans saw the best October total in the past 10 years, a sign of the sustained strength of these new van markets and perhaps the approaching Jan. 2007 deadline for new vans to meet Euro 4 emissions laws."

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