World diesel engine demand is forecast to expand 3.5 percent per year through 2012 to $153 billion. This represents a considerable deceleration from the growth posted during the 2002-2007 period, reflecting an expected slowdown in motor vehicle and off-highway equipment production.
A moderation in metal prices from their elevated 2007 levels is expected to deflate growth in the value of diesel engine demand through 2012. Despite the slower growth rate, substantial increases in demand will occur in every segment of the world diesel engine market, with the majority of new demand coming in the motor vehicle segment.
These and other trends are presented in World Diesel Engines, a new study from The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry research firm.
Demand for diesel engines in the stationary power segment is expected to expand at the fastest annual rate, as industrialized nations transition to alternative energy sources (stationary engines used as backup generators) and developing countries continue to invest in their infrastructure (micropower generation). Nonetheless, the stationary segment will continue to play only a small role in the global diesel engine market. Demand in the motor vehicle segment is forecast to grow 3.7 percent per year, accounting for a majority of new growth from 2007 to 2012.
The off-highway segment is expected to perform slightly below the market average as commodity and agricultural prices retreat from their elevated 2007 levels.
In 2007, the Asia/Pacific region was the world’s largest market for diesel engines. From 2002 to 2007, growth in the regional market was driven by rising demand for diesel engines in China and India, where increased domestic production of motor vehicles, machinery and equipment encouraged demand. The markets in Indonesia and Thailand also experienced strong growth during this period for similar reasons. The Asia/Pacific market for diesel engines is forecast to grow 4 percent annually through 2012, with China alone responsible for over 18 percent of total new global demand generated between 2007 and 2012. The largest absolute gains in the regional market will occur in the heavy truck and bus segment, which will total $26.7 billion in 2012.
The diesel engine market in Western Europe is projected to decelerate through 2012, due to weakness in the production of motor vehicles and machinery.
In North America, growth will be driven by the motor vehicle segment, which is set to benefit from higher levels of heavy vehicle output and the increased use of diesel engines in light vehicle production. From 2007 to 2012, demand for diesel engines in Eastern Europe and Latin America is expected to expand faster than the global average, yet each region will still only account for about five to six percent of aggregate demand.